Proxy Wars

With conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and a looming invasion of Taiwan by China, America stands on the brink of three proxy wars. America must recall its past proxy war successes and failures before committing further to one or all three. Failure to do so could be catastrophic.

Proxy wars are nothing new. City-states of ancient Greece and republican and imperial Rome used surrogates, partners, and allies to further their interests and fight on their behalf. During the American Revolutionary War, the French provided crucial financial and military support to American revolutionaries, facilitating American independence and weakening their British rivals.

In the nuclear age, proxy wars have become increasingly common. During the Cold War, to avoid nuclear conflict, the United States and the Soviet Union found themselves locked in a series of proxy wars against one another, always managing to avoid direct confrontation. And why not? Proxy wars can have significant benefits when executed effectively.

Sponsor nations, avoid direct casualties, contain the conflict to distant regions, and prevent escalation. In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to support the new communist government against widespread rebellion. The US entered the fray to support the anti-communist Mujahideen economically, straining the USSR for over ten years and contributing to its ultimate collapse.

But when proxy wars are ill-conceived, poorly planned, or mismanaged, financial, political, and cultural destruction are often the result. At the outset of Vietnam, the United States initially avoided direct military involvement, supporting anti-Communist South Vietnam with money, weapons, and advisors. But as Stalin and Mao's support of Northern Communist forces grew, America was gradually drawn into the conflict directly, without a comprehensive strategy or clearly defined goals.

Among other strategic mistakes, the war cost the US billions of dollars, 50,000 American lives, and created cultural upheaval at home only for the US to eventually withdraw and let Saigon fall to the Communists. Today, the United States finds itself committed to one proxy war and on the knife's edge of two more.

And while proxy wars may have common threads, no two are alike. A recipe for success in Ukraine may constitute a recipe for failure in Taiwan. America must first fully understand the nature of each potential proxy war on the horizon and develop clearly articulated goals with a comprehensive strategy to avoid proxy warfare's unintended, escalating, and devastating consequences.